Temperatures are hovering in the upper 30s as rain tapers off across the northern Cumberland Plateau this afternoon, and are expected to warm no more than 4-5 degrees for the remainder of the afternoon as abnormally-warm late October weather has given way to abnormally-cold late October weather in the truest taste of fall so far this season.
But it won't last, as a very warm start to November looks likely.
We may see our first freeze of the season tonight, if conditions cooperate (model output statistics from the GFS forecast model suggests a low of 31; the National Weather Service is forecasting a low of 32). And tomorrow's high will only top out in the mid 40s.
But a warming trend will kick in after that, with temps back to near 60 degrees by Monday. Considerable rain chances look to be in place for much of next week, with the upper jet cranking up to keep the weather unsettled as the flow shifts to the south to bring in milder and more moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.
It looks like warmth will be the general trend for a while. It's too soon to bet on it, but various models are pretty consistent in keeping temps in the 70s for the Day 8-15 range, which takes us towards the middle of November. Today's run of the GFS backed off the extreme warmth a bit, but still has us hitting 70 degrees several times from Nov. 6-13. Some earlier runs of some models were showing a run at record warmth at times during that span, but they were likely too warm.
The pattern will continue to evolve and models should slowly get a better handle on what to expect, but the bottom line is that the cold air intrusion we're experiencing this weekend isn't going to be a sign of things to come, even though we're in the time of year for it. This is not necessarily atypical of a La Nina season, which can feature periods of extreme warmth during the late fall and winter months. The cool down we're currently experiencing has been well-modeled for a couple of weeks. But the next cold air intrusion seems less certain, which leads one to believe there will likely be more warm air than cold air through Thanksgiving.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.