During the first week of July, before a true summer-like pattern finally established itself in our region, we saw an entire month's worth of rain in a single week. The same thing could potentially happen next week, with our region receiving its average rainfall for the entire month of August in a single week.
Models are in agreement on a frontal boundary stalling over the region and staying put for the entire week. This will serve as a focal point for precipitation, with multiple disturbances riding along the boundary and generating showers and thunderstorms for the entire area. Rain chances will be better some days than others, but there won't be any single day next week without at least a chance for rain.
The GFS forecast model is currently projecting 4-5 inches of rain for Scott County through next Saturday, and it has been fairly consistent with that projection over the past several days. In a typical August, Oneida receives 4.3 inches of rain for the entire month.
Now, there are several caveats: one, the exact placement of the frontal boundary is in question. That will help determine where the heavier rain amounts fall. As a general rule, the heavier rain totals are likely to be south of Interstate 40, with the higher rain totals north of the interstate. The GFS model, while quite wet for our region, has a fairly sharp cutoff to our north, with only about an inch or two of rain over Somerset next week. And the Canadian model displaces the heaviest precipitation further south, with 2-3 inches of rain for Scott County.
So don't assume those higher rain projections will pan out. Just know that there will be ample opportunity for rain next week. If there's a day when rain doesn't fall, it might be Tuesday, but it will be quite a surprise if we don't see rain falling on most days next week. And the GFS model is keeping that rain threat going into next weekend . . . and hinting at some tropical trouble that could impact our region about that same time.
With all the rain around, there will obviously be cooler-than-average temperatures as well. The Climate Prediction Center is currently projecting above-average rainfall and below-average temperatures for our region for the next 14 days.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.