The weather in the wake of the tropical depression that rolled across Tennessee on Friday is hard to beat — unless you like your summer weather scorching hot . . . like summers in the Mid-South are supposed to feel. Highs today will be only in the 70s, with lots of sunshine, according to the National Weather Service. And the next couple of days may be even slightly cooler than today, with a weak system rolling in from the northwest to provide a refreshing shot of cold air.
I posted one day last week that the GFS forecast model was projecting very hot temperatures to end the month of June and to start the month of July, but warned that the model has been consistently doing that in the Days 8-15 range all summer, only to see cooler than normal temperatures continue as the norm.
Well, that once again appears to be the case. Temps will be in the 70s for at least the first half of this week, although we may see 80s return by the end of the week as a southerly flow resumes ahead of our next frontal system. The GFS is now on the heat train for the July 3-11 period. If the model proved correct, those eight days would feature temps primarily in the 90s, with a high of 98 degrees, and even nighttime temps would be quite warm, with a low of 69 during the eight-day period. But, again, don't expect those temps to actually pan out.
That next frontal system will arrive Thursday-Friday, with at least 50/50 chances of thunderstorms each day through next weekend. Currently, model guidance suggests that frontal boundary will stall out somewhere right over us. If that's the case, it could set up a scenario where we see a few days with a lot of showers and thunderstorms -- just in time for the 4th of July.
It's too soon to say for sure that will be the case; the 6z run of the GFS this morning was quite dry overall through the next 10 days, with some chances of thunderstorms each day beginning Thursday but not too bad overall. That run is an outlier so far, though, as other runs of the GFS have been quite a bit wetter. We likely won't know what to expect for the 4th of July holiday period for a few more days, but early indications are that there will at least be a really good chance for scattered thunderstorms.
As for temps, it's looking more and more like this summer is going to wind up on the cool side of normal, overall — much like the summers of 2009 and 2013.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.