The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., has the northern Cumberland Plateau on the eastern edge of a "slight risk" outlook for severe weather today, as a MCS moves eastward towards the plateau region.
A few small storms have developed ahead of the approaching MCS (which may impact parts of the northern plateau but are more likely to fade or drift north of the state line) but the main show is the storms that stretched from Macon County to southwest of Nashville as of 3:30 p.m.
The SPC says that the environment in which these storms are firing is primarily supportive of damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms, as far as severe weather potential is concerned. There is no risk of tornadoes, and the risk of large hail is limited to just 5 percent, according to the SPC's forecast.
A look at the radar loop shows some weakening occurring with these storms, which is not surprising. The HRRR, which is the chief short-range model, shows these storms dissipating almost completely as they approach the northern plateau and interact with an air mass that is somewhat more stable than the air mass in northern Middle Tennessee.
Currently, these storms are not severe, even without weakening. And there have been no reports of damage occurring with the storms.
So, in other words, these are just run-of-the-mill summer thunderstorms that are expected to diminish significantly as they approach our region.
Another thunderstorm complex is trailing behind this one, with a QLCS impacting parts of West Tennessee. The SPC also expects that one to weaken as it moves into Middle Tennessee. And the HRRR model shows it, too, dissipating as it continues east.
If the HRRR is correct, we may see some rain begin to overspread across our area by 8 p.m., but the model is showing little more than perhaps some embedded thunder with the rainfall by the time it reaches the northern plateau.
Cooler temperatures: Tonight's rain will usher in cooler temperatures for the next week than what we experienced last week. With rainfall continuing tomorrow, temps are likely to stay in the 70s, and the latest run of the GFS computer model continues to show temps struggling to get above 80 degrees for the entire week, with lows in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is possible next weekend.
After that, the models show much drier and hotter weather as we close out June and start July, though thunderstorm chances begin to increase as we move into the 4th of July holiday period.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.