For the first time this season, it has actually felt like summer this week for those of us on the northern Cumberland Plateau. It's been a little wetter than a typical summer week, with repeated rounds of thunderstorms, but the muggy heat coupled with daily thunderstorm chances has made it a normal summertime pattern in a summer that -- while still early -- has been anything but normal so far.
That's going to change a bit, though, as we get into the end of the weekend and the first of next week, as yet another cool-down heads our direction.
A frontal boundary will bring enhanced chances for thunderstorms to the region both Sunday and Monday, as an upper level trough develops over the eastern U.S. That will help bring below-normal temperatures to our region for the start of the work week. If the latest GFS forecast model proves correct, we may struggle to get out of the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, with nighttime lows flirting with the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
As has been the case in this progressive pattern, the cool-down won't last, and we'll see warmer conditions returning by later in the week. Beyond that, there is a lot of uncertainty about what our weather pattern does as we get into the end of June. Some models have at times shown very hot weather developing across our region by the last week of June, while other models at other times have kept us in the rinse-wash-repeat pattern that we're currently in.
The safest bet for now seems to be for more of the same, which would mean average to slightly below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation overall. However, it's worth noting that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is starting to shift the pattern somewhat in its forecasts. After below-average temperatures for the Day 6-10 period, it is now forecasting above-average temperatures for the Day 8-12 period, with the eastern half of Tennessee also in the above-average category for the Week 3-4 period. The CPC's new long-range forecasts, issued today, call for warmer-than-average temperatures for the months of July, August and September, with an end to the rainy conditions we've been experiencing.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.