Even as temperatures that are more typical of summer arrive to the Cumberlands, above-average rainfall will continue -- for this week and for the foreseeable future -- as a very unusual summer weather pattern continues.
The National Weather Service at Morristown is forecasting temperatures in the low to mid 80s for Oneida each day for the next week, which will easily make this the warmest week of the season thus far, since May and early June featured regular cool-downs that knocked back the heat every few days.
But there won't be many dry days, with the NWS forecasting at least a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms each day after Tuesday (and a 40 percent chance on Tuesday).
In other words, the best days to enjoy those warm temperatures may be today and Monday.
The culprit is an area of high pressure that is ideally positioned in the Atlantic to create a southerly flow around it that will cause moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to be ushered into our region. The diurnal heating will be enough to create scattered thunderstorms from that moisture each afternoon. So while no single day will be a complete washout, there will be abundant rain chances. Later in the week, upper level ridging over the entire region will begin to break down, which will allow a boundary that will create enhanced rain and storm chances. And a shortwave system may approach the region by next weekend, which will again bump up the rain chances.
For now, NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting about two inches of rain for the region, but areas that are hit by repeat thunderstorms could see higher rain totals:
Above-average precipitation will likely continue for the remainder of the month. As for temps, it looks like next week (June 20-27) will be cooler than the week upcoming, as an upper level trough returns to the eastern U.S. This summer continues to follow the model of the Summer of 2009, which really wasn't much of a summer at all in terms of heat and dry weather. Cooler than average temperatures with above-average rainfall looks to continue to be the norm as we move towards July.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.