So you're out of school (or just a kid at heart) and now you want to do nothing but lie by your pool and soak up the sun, right? After all, Memorial Day is the unofficial start to summer, so it's time for lots of sunshine and lots of heat...right?
Mother nature says, "Yeah...right."
The eastern U.S.'s progressive weather pattern will continue this week and into the foreseeable future, which means above-average rainfall and no real stretches of hot weather as we head into the summer season.
We're seeing yet another day of thunderstorms, as scattered storms have broken out across the region this afternoon. And the National Weather Service at Morristown says there's an even better chance of those scattered thunderstorms tomorrow than there was today.
This comes on the heels of yet another wet weekend in the Cumberlands -- although it wasn't a total washout -- and the upcoming weekend appears to be quite wet, as well.
As for temperatures, we could very well make it through the next week without seeing the thermometer touch 80 even once. Much of that will depend on how much cloud cover we see and whether we see any thunderstorms develop the next three days. Any one day could see temps top out around 80, or a little extra cloud cover could help them stay just below. And with tomorrow night's low temperature expected to bottom out around 52 degrees, good luck retaining that pool heat!
Nighttime temps will warm and humidity will be on the increase as we move into the weekend, but that is just going to set the stage for more rain. It looks like we'll see rain chances begin to increase Saturday afternoon and continue throughout the day on Sunday. The latest run of the GFS forecast model is showing nearly 2 inches of rain over the next seven days, but that isn't a very reliable picture, as our rain will be mostly convective in nature and these low-resolution models, such as the GFS, aren't very adept at picking up on convective precipitation, at least not in exact amounts. With a very moist air mass in place, heavy rain could lead to higher rain amounts wherever the thunderstorms set up. Overall, the weather pattern will be unsettled through the weekend.
The GFS model shows no real change to our weather pattern through the first half of June, as above-average rainfall and slightly below-average temperatures continue. For the Days 6-10 and 8-14 periods, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall for all of Tennessee. For Weeks 3-4, the agency has above-average temperatures for the coastal areas while giving the rest of us equal chances for above-normal or below-normal temperatures, but it continues to forecast above-average rainfall for Weeks 3-4. The CPC's three-month forecast, for the months of June-August, forecasts above-average temperatures for Tennessee and most of the eastern U.S. This is a relatively new forecast, issued on May 18. But, as I've said in the past, I wouldn't take it to the bank just yet.
Like hot and dry weather for your summer? Don't hold your breath waiting for it. This summer is looking more and more like Summer 2009 -- which wasn't much of a summer at all, at least in terms of typical summer weather.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.