A wave of summer-like weather is headed to the Cumberlands and much of the rest of the Southeast this week, as upper level ridging and high pressure usher in much warmer temperatures for the entire region.
High temps neared 80 degrees today, and should be even warmer the next three days, as conditions that are more typical in late June than in mid May embrace the region. High pressure will be centered over the southern Appalachians, which will mean above-average temperatures for the entire region.
But, as has been the case this spring, don't expect it to last long. Things begin to change by Wednesday night, as an upper level shortwave system enters the picture and shoves the upper level ridge off to the east. That will allow for somewhat cooler (closer to average) temperatures and rain chances for much of the weekend, as a trough sets up over the region. The latest run of the GFS forecast model is showing about 1.5 inches of rain for our area from Thursday through Sunday, and rain chances could be plentiful both Saturday and Sunday.
That late-week change is going to bring about a return to the progressive pattern that we've seen in place throughout the spring season, with intermittent warm-ups and cool-downs. If this is a sign of things to come, we'll likely see a wetter-than-average summer take shape, with no real abundance of above-average temperatures that lock into place for weeks on end.
It's too soon to say for sure that such a progressive pattern will continue into summer, and in fact, the seasonal forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is calling for above-average temperatures for our region for the months of June and July. (That forecast hasn't been updated since April 20, for whatever that's worth.)
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.